Subjects Business cycles. Economic forecasting. Financial leverage. The great deleveraging : economic growth and investing strategies for the future. Dickson, Chip. Contributors: Shenkar, Oded. More recently Chinese authorities have promised to nudge the door open to more foreign investment, but foreign banking claims currently remain low given the extensive trade linkages with the U.
Chinese authorities have prioritized rebalancing of the economy away from investment-heavy, debt-fueled growth, and toward less debt-intensive service industries. But, as GDP growth has eased in lockstep, these measures have thus far only managed to slow the upward climb in the overall debt ratio. Further, these efforts have done little to deal with the legacy of past debts that have accumulated over the years.
Deleverage Before a Downturn
Ultimately, the large amount of legacy debt will have to be restructured, which is a process that has been attempted in fits and spurts by Chinese authorities with limited success in the past few years. Excessive debt is not a new problem for China. Since , China has undertaken three restructuring episodes for bank debt, and its central bank bailed out a number of lenders in the s after they had become saddled with bad loans.
Under the assumption that market reforms and gradual debt restructuring process are well executed, financial stability risks posed from the elevated stock of legacy debt should slowly lessen. We address these risks in the accompanying text box.
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In a nutshell, the situation remains fluid and much will depend on whether U. Although all sectors have added to the total, the non-financial corporate sector, including state-owned enterprises, and the household sector really stand out. According to the BIS, foreign banking sector claims on China on an ultimate risk basis amounted to just 2. In comparison, foreign banking sector claims on the U. This rise in debt over the last decade is partly a stimulus story.
In response to the global economic downturn, Chinese authorities brought forward a number of infrastructure and investment-heavy projects and effectively subsidized lending to underperforming industries in order to keep them solvent. Looser financial conditions post-crisis helped hasten the run-up in debt. Low borrowing rates encouraged Chinese households to invest in real estate, pushing up house prices and household debt to new highs while also supporting the construction sector.
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To provide some perspective, the ratio for Canada and the U. The U. Moreover, Chinese authorities have promised to level reciprocal tariffs on an equivalent amount of U. All told, announced tariffs both planned and threatened by the U. This means that China may see economic growth of about 5. Overall, this relatively small drag on economic activity is unlikely to trigger an intense bout of deleveraging by Chinese firms or households. Although the announced tariffs are unlikely to derail plans by Chinese authorities to slow credit growth and restructure existing debt, an escalation to a full blown trade war could send Chinese economic activity spiraling well below trend.
Policymakers are likely to respond to such a negative scenario by engaging in fiscal stimulus, including pulling forward debt-financed infrastructure spending that will further exacerbate domestic imbalances. A devaluation in the renminbi will likely ensue as well, which could result in a surge in capital outflows that authorities will push back against.
Ultimately we believe that cooler heads will prevail, avoiding such a negative trade war scenario. However, the anticipated economic drag from the announced tariffs is likely to impede progress by Chinese authorities to wean economic activity off of its overdependence on credit growth.
Moreover, the employment-intensive construction sector was an obvious choice for Chinese authorities that aim to ensure social harmony at any cost. Any financial stability concerns about the rapid accumulation of debt were brushed aside. Stories of ghost cities became frequent, with analysts coalescing on the view that China had overbuilt infrastructure that could be underutilized for a decade or more.
This fueled concerns about how the accumulated debt would be paid off. In response, Chinese authorities devised strategies to gradually make economic growth less dependent upon credit-intensive industries like manufacturing and construction and toward consumption and service industries.
The Great Deleveraging: Economic Growth and Investing Strategies for the Future
Most popular measures to date include:. These measures have worked both to make economic activity more dependent on services, and to effectively tighten financial conditions in China Chart 3. As the economy has rebalanced, the government has been generally successful in reducing credit growth particularly in the non-financial corporate and government sector.
Progress however, has been slow. Authorities have found it easier to reduce frenzied speculation in the housing market by rationing credit to the household sector. However, both local government debt and non-financial corporate debt has continued to build. For firms, bank loans, entrusted and trust loans remain the dominant forms of firm finance despite efforts by authorities to develop a market for corporate bonds.
A sizable portion of these loans are non-performing, and may even be backed by household wealth management products that promise guaranteed returns Chart 4. The risk of course is that if the loans turn sour, banks will have to come up with a way to payback investors, which in the least could reduce bank lending to the economy, and may force Chinese authorities to loosen domestic credit conditions in order to ensure adequate liquidity.
However, the government had noticed the high debt ratio and low productivity of SOEs, and therefore announced its plan to reform them in These largely constitute firms in the mining and manufacturing industries, some of which are critical to regional economies. The reform process remains challenging. With the private sector effectively subsidizing the SOEs, the mixed ownership not only increases the overall return of a notoriously underperforming sector but also raises volatility.
Focus on Decision Making
However, if too many individuals or corporations focus on saving or paying down debt rather than spending, lower interest rates have less effect on investment and consumption behavior; the lower interest rates are like " pushing on a string ". Economist Paul Krugman described the U. One remedy to a liquidity trap is expanding the money supply via quantitative easing or other techniques in which money is effectively printed to purchase assets, thereby creating inflationary expectations that cause savers to begin spending again.
Government stimulus spending and mercantilist policies to stimulate exports and reduce imports are other techniques to stimulate demand. Behavior that may be optimal for an individual saving more during adverse economic conditions can be detrimental if too many individuals pursue the same behavior, as ultimately one person's consumption is another person's income. Too many consumers attempting to save or pay down debt simultaneously is called the paradox of thrift and can cause or deepen a recession.
Economist Hyman Minsky also described a "paradox of deleveraging" as financial institutions that have too much leverage debt relative to equity cannot all de-leverage simultaneously without significant declines in the total of their assets. During April , U.
Recession - Wikipedia
The recession, in turn, deepened the credit crunch as demand and employment fell, and credit losses of financial institutions surged. Indeed, we have been in the grips of precisely this adverse feedback loop for more than a year. A process of balance sheet deleveraging has spread to nearly every corner of the economy. Consumers are pulling back on purchases, especially on goods, to build their savings. Businesses are cancelling planned investments and laying off workers to preserve cash.
And, financial institutions are shrinking assets to bolster capital and improve their chances of weathering the current storm. Once again, Minsky understood this dynamic. He spoke of the paradox of deleveraging, in which precautions that may be smart for individuals and firms—and indeed essential to return the economy to a normal state—nevertheless magnify the distress of the economy as a whole. There are no known completely reliable predictors, but the following are considered possible predictors. Analysis by Prakash Loungani of the International Monetary Fund found that only two of the sixty recessions around the world during the s had been predicted by a consensus of economists one year earlier, while there were zero consensus predictions one year earlier for the 49 recessions during Most mainstream economists believe that recessions are caused by inadequate aggregate demand in the economy, and favor the use of expansionary macroeconomic policy during recessions.
Strategies favored for moving an economy out of a recession vary depending on which economic school the policymakers follow. Monetarists would favor the use of expansionary monetary policy , while Keynesian economists may advocate increased government spending to spark economic growth. Supply-side economists may suggest tax cuts to promote business capital investment.
When interest rates reach the boundary of an interest rate of zero percent zero interest-rate policy conventional monetary policy can no longer be used and government must use other measures to stimulate recovery. Keynesians argue that fiscal policy —tax cuts or increased government spending—works when monetary policy fails. Spending is more effective because of its larger multiplier but tax cuts take effect faster.
For example, Paul Krugman wrote in December that significant, sustained government spending was necessary because indebted households were paying down debts and unable to carry the U. This would be fine if someone else were taking up the slack. What the government should be doing in this situation is spending more while the private sector is spending less, supporting employment while those debts are paid down. And this government spending needs to be sustained Some recessions have been anticipated by stock market declines.
In Stocks for the Long Run , Siegel mentions that since , ten recessions were preceded by a stock market decline, by a lead time of 0 to 13 months average 5. The real-estate market also usually weakens before a recession. Since the business cycle is very hard to predict, Siegel argues that it is not possible to take advantage of economic cycles for timing investments. During an economic decline, high yield stocks such as fast-moving consumer goods , pharmaceuticals , and tobacco tend to hold up better. There is significant disagreement about how health care and utilities tend to recover.
There is a view termed the halfway rule  according to which investors start discounting an economic recovery about halfway through a recession. In the 16 U.